|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]吴群琪,杨霞,汪忠.道路运输供需品质分析与需求预测[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2007,9(04):16-19.
　WU Qun-qi,YANG Xia,WANG Zhong.Forecast for transportation demand from analysis of transportation demand & supply quality[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2007,9(04):16-19.
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《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:
第9卷
期数:
2007年04期
页码:
16-19
栏目:
交通运输经济与管理
出版日期:
2007-12-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Forecast for transportation demand from analysis of transportation demand & supply quality
作者:
吴群琪1; 杨霞1; 汪忠2
1.长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安　710064; 2.交通部规划研究院,北京　100029
Author(s):
WU Qun-qi1;  YANG Xia1;  WANG Zhong2
1. School of Economics and Management, Changan University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Communications, Beijing 100029, China
关键词:
交通运输规划与管理; 运输经济; 运输需求; 运输供给; 运输需求预测理论
Keywords:
planning and management of transportation;  transportation economy;  transportation demand;  transportation supply;  theory of transportation demand forecast
分类号:
F540
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为构建科学的道路运输预测体系、准确把握运输需求变动提供新的预测理论支撑,有必要 对运输需求和运输供给的经济内涵进行重新诠释。运用需求函数和供需平衡理论分别对运输需求 与运输价格的变动关系、运输品质与运输需求的变动关系进行敏感性分析。分析表明:运输需求具 有层次性特征,运输供给具有异质性特征;历史运量与未来需求量之间受供需条件约束,不应简单 等同。分析结果表明:若供给与需求吻合,可沿用现有预测方法;若供给不足以满足需求,可将运输 需求划分为价格敏感型和品质敏感型两类,运用供需弹性分析理论考察其供求关系变动规
Abstract:
In order to establish a scientific transportation forecasting system and accurately get to know the forecasting theory in transportation demands, it is necessary to re-discuss the implications in the transportation demands and supplies. This paper, through demand functions and demand-supply balance theory, carries out a sensitive analysis on the relationship between transportation demands and price variations, and the relationship between transportation quality and demand variations. The authors find that the transportation demand is characterized by its gradation while the transportation supply is featured by heterogeneity, and that the recorded transportation volume and the future demands are restricted by supply-demand conditions, which should not be taken as equivalent. The results show that if the supply can meet the needs of demands, the existing forecating method can still be used. If not, the demand can be futher divided into price sensitive mode and quality sensitive mode. The paper, at last, by means of elastic analysis theory, observes the variation law of the relationship between supply and demand and forcasts the future increases.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2007-07-06
作者简介:吴群琪(1956-),男,广东大埔人,教授,博士研究生导师。
更新日期/Last Update: 2007-12-20