|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]隋月红,郝丹阳.贸易成本视角下中美大市场效应的差异与对策研究[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2025,(02):48-66.
　SUI Yuehong,HAO Danyang.Study on the differences of big market effects in China and the U.S. from the perspective of trade costs[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2025,(02):48-66.
点击复制

贸易成本视角下中美大市场效应的差异与对策研究(PDF)
分享到：

《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:
期数:
2025年02期
页码:
48-66
栏目:
国际经济与贸易
出版日期:
2025-05-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the differences of big market effects in China and the U.S. from the perspective of trade costs
文章编号:
1671-6248(2025)02-0048-19
作者:
隋月红; 郝丹阳
(中国计量大学 “一带一路”区域标准化研究中心,浙江 杭州 310018)
Author(s):
SUI Yuehong;  HAO Danyang
(Belt and Road Regional Standardization Research Center, China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China)
关键词:
国际经济与贸易;  贸易成本;  母国市场效应;  异质性随机前沿引力模型;  中美大市场;  比较优势
Keywords:
international economics and trade;  trade cost;  home market effect;  heterogeneous stochastic frontier gravity model;  big market in China and the U.S.;  comparative advantage
分类号:
F11; F75; F74
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了从贸易成本视角下研究中国与美国的大市场效应及其差异,借助母国市场效应工具,研究提出,国家经济规模与出口之间存在倒U型关系、企业异质性的双向空间排序效应、比较优势与大市场效应驱动出口的主导性等假说。利用2001—2021年中国和美国分别向世界125个贸易伙伴双边贸易数据,借助异质性随机前沿引力模型,研究发现,在剔除贸易非效率项的影响下,美国的大市场效应驱动了进口扩大,而我国并未显著地取得任何类型的大市场效应,出口的扩大来自偏向资本要素的比较优势。通过分位数回归,研究发现,特朗普政府发动的中美贸易加征关税行为,将美国大市场驱动的进口效应扭转为出口效应,且出口效率得到加强,而中国转向了规模较低或效率较低商品的出口,以上均构成了未来中美参与国际分工的差异化路径,缓解了彼此的贸易摩擦。研究表明,中美均为全球化的受益者,二者在资本品和中间品进出口上形成产业链合作关系,仅在消费品上构成竞争关系。研究建议,加强对内监管与对外协调能力、防范经济波动性风险、持续扩大多元化贸易伙伴与出口,重视中小企业地方化和多样化。
Abstract:
To study the big market effects in China and the United States from the perspective of trade costs and their differences, this study adopts the home market effect framework and proposes several hypotheses: an inverted U-shaped relationship between national economic scale and exports; a two-sided sorting spatial effect of enterprise heterogeneity; and the dominant roles of comparative advantage and big market effects in driving exports. Using bilateral trade data from China and the U.S. with 125 global trade partners from 2001 to 2021, and applying a heterogeneous stochastic frontier gravity model, the study finds that after excluding the influence of trade inefficiencies the U.S. big market effect drives import expansion, whereas China has not achieved any significant type of big market effect. China's export growth has been primarily driven by its capital-intensive comparative advantage. Quantile regression results show that the additional tariffs imposed during the Trump administration reversed the U.S. big market-driven import effect into an export effect, enhancing export efficiency. In contrast, China shifted toward exporting goods on a smaller scale or with lower efficiency. These dynamics suggest differentiated future pathways for China and the U.S. in global value chains, easing bilateral trade frictions. The study concludes that both China and the U.S. are beneficiaries of globalization, forming complementary industrial chain relationships in capital and intermediate goods trade, while remaining competitors mainly in consumer goods. Policy recommendations include strengthening domestic regulation and international coordination, guarding against economic volatility, diversifying trade partners and sustaining export growth, and emphasizing the localization and diversification of small and medium-sized enterprises.

参考文献/References:

[1] KRUGMAN P.Scale Economies,product differentiation,and the pattern of trade[J].American economic review,1980(5):950-959.
[2]DAVIS D R,WEINSTEIN D E.Market access,economic geography,and comparative advantage:an empirical assessment[J].Journal of international economics,2003(1):59.
[3]BALDWIN R,HARRIGAN J.Zeros,quality and space:trade theory and trade evidence[J].American economic journal:microeconomics,2011(2):60-88.
[4]FAJGELBAUM P,GROSSMAN G,HELPMAN E.A Linder hypothesis for foreign direct investment[J].CEPR discussion papers,2011,82(1):83-121.
[5]FEENSTRA R C,MARKUSEN J R,ROSE A K.Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade[J].Canadian journal of economics,2001(2):430-447.
[6]曾道智.本地市场效应的由来和研究前沿[J].城市与环境研究,2020(1):96-112.
[7]毛艳华,李敬子.中国服务业出口的本地市场效应研究[J].经济研究,2015(8):98-113.
[8]沈国兵.贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题[J].经济研究,2005(6):82-93.
[9]黄万阳,王维国.人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡问题——基于HS分类商品的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010(7):76-90.
[10]许培源,胡日东.中美贸易不平衡及其与美国对华投资相关性研究[J].亚太经济,2008(1):18-23.
[11]王岚,盛斌.全球价值链分工背景下的中美增加值贸易与双边贸易利益[J].财经研究,2014(9):97-108.
[12]鞠建东,马弘,魏自儒,等.中美贸易的反比较优势之谜[J].经济学(季刊),2012(3):805-832.
[13]倪红福,龚六堂,陈湘杰.全球价值链中的关税成本效应分析——兼论中美贸易摩擦的价格效应和福利效应[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(8):74-90.
[14]李跟强,潘文卿.中美贸易摩擦、全球价值链分工与福利效应[J].统计研究,2022(1):75-90.
[15]AMITI M,REDDING S J,WEINSTEIN D.The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S.prices and welfare[J].CEPR discussion papers,2019(4):187-210.
[16]FAJGELBAUM P D,GOLDBERG P,KENNEDY P J,et al.The return to protectionism[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2020(1):1-55.
[17]BELLORA C,FONTAGNÉ L.Shooting oneself in the foot?trade war and global value chains[EB/OL].(2020-04-17)[2025-01-15].https://hal.science/hal-02444899v2.
[18]HANDLEY K,KAMAL F,MONARCH R.Rising import tariffs,falling export growth:when modern supply chains meet old-style protectionism[EB/OL].(2020-08-01)[2025-01-15].https://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers676-700/r676.pdf.
[19]李春顶,何传添,林创伟.中美贸易摩擦应对政策的效果评估[J].中国工业经济,2018(10):137-155.
[20]吕越,马嘉林,田琳.中美贸易摩擦对全球价值链重构的影响及中国方案[J].国际贸易,2019(8):28-35.
[21]齐鹰飞,LI Y F.跨国投入产出网络中的贸易摩擦——兼析中美贸易摩擦的就业和福利效应[J].财贸经济,2019,40(5):83-95.
[22]BOUET A,LABORDE D.U.S. trade wars in the twenty-first century with emerging countries:make America and its partners lose again[J].The world economy,2018(9):2276-2319.
[23]樊海潮,张丽娜.中间品贸易与中美贸易摩擦的福利效应:基于理论与量化分析的研究[J].中国工业经济,2018(9):41-59.
[24]王霞.中美贸易摩擦对全球制造业格局的影响研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2019(6):22-40.
[25]张杰.中美经济竞争的战略内涵、多重博弈特征与应对策略[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2018(3):1-22.
[26]李孝天.经济相互依赖视角下的中美贸易冲突:成因、启示与前景[J].国际关系研究,2019(5):109-135,158-159.
[27]张建清,陈果.基于竞合理论视角的中美贸易摩擦研究[J].经济问题探索,2019(10):100-107,164.
[28]陈明哲,庞大龙.中美贸易战:基于动态竞争的视角[J].外国经济与管理,2019(7):3-24.
[29]HEAD K,MAYER T,RIES J.On the pervasiveness of home market effects[J].CEPR discussion papers,2002(275):371-390.
[30]BEHRENS K,LAMORGESE A R,OTTAVIANO G I P,et al.Testing the home market effects in a multi-country world:the theory[EB/OL].(2004-03-29)[2025-01-15].http://repec.org/esFEAM04/up.1818.1080354839.pdf.
[31]BALDWIN R,OKUBO T.Heterogeneous firms,agglomeration and economic geography:selection and sorting[J].CEPR discussion papers,2004(3):323-346.
[32]TOSHIHIRO O.Home market effect and regulation costs—homogeneous firm and heterogeneous firm trade models[EB/OL].(2006-02-01)[2025-01-15].https://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIWP02-2006.pdf.
[33]钱学锋,梁琦.本地市场效应:理论和经验研究的新近进展[J].经济学(季刊),2007(3):969-990.
[34]李敬子,陈强远,钱学锋.非位似偏好、非线性本地市场效应与服务贸易出口[J].经济研究,2020(2):133-147.
[35]VENABLES A J.Equilibrium locations of vertically linked industries[J].CEPR discussion papers,1993(2):341-359.
[36]赵伟,张萃.FDI与中国制造业区域集聚:基于20个行业的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(11):82-90.
[37]CROZET M,TRIONFETTI F.Trade costs and the home market effect[J].Journal of international economics,2008(2):309-321.
[38]FPRSID R,TOSHIHIRO O.Spatial relocation with heterogeneous firms and heterogeneous sectors[EB/OL].(2010-10-01)[2025-01-15].http://www2.ne.su.se/paper/wp10_17.pdf.
[39]ERHARDT K.On home market effects and firm heterogeneity[J].European economic review,2017(3):316-340.
[40]HANSON G H,XIANG C.The home-market effect and bilateral trade patterns[J].American economic review,2004(4):1108-1129.
[41]AMITI M.Inter-industry trade in manufactures:does country size matter?[J].Journal of international economics,1998,44(2):231-255.
[42]MATSUYAMA K.The home market effect and patterns of trade between rich and poor countries[EB/OL].(2015-07-14)[2025-01-15].https://conference.nber.org/confer/2015/SI2015/EFBGZ/Matsuyama.pdf.
[43]PFLÜGER M,TABUCHI T.Comparative advantage,agglomeration economies and trade costs[J].Journal of urban economics,2018,109(2):1-13.
[44]SCHUMACHER D,SILIVERSTOVS B.Home-market and factor-endowment effects in a gravity approach[J].Review of world economics,2006(2):330-353.

相似文献/References:

[1]余淼杰,祝辉煌.贸易政策不确定性的度量、影响及其政策意义[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2019,21(01):1.
　YU Miaojie,ZHU Huihuang.Measurement, impact and policy implications of trade policy uncertainty[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2019,21(02):1.
[2]黄玖立.双循环、分工整合与经济增长[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2021,23(01):57.
　HUANG Jiuli.Dual circulation, specialization & integration, and economic growth[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2021,23(02):57.
[3]余淼杰,佘可欣.贸易中介研究综述[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2022,24(06):25.
　YU Miaojie,SHE Kexin.A research overview of the trade intermediaries[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2022,24(02):25.
[4]陈芳,邱斌,户华玉.美国对华出口管制、政府补贴与企业全要素生产率[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2025,(02):32.
　CHEN Fang,QIU Bin,HU Huayu.U.S. export controls on China, government subsidies, and total factor productivity of enterprises[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2025,(02):32.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2025-01-15
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(18BJL102)
作者简介:隋月红(1982-),女,湖南株洲人,副教授,经济学博士。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-05-30