«上一篇/Previous Article|本期目录/Table of Contents|下一篇/Next Article»

《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:

第25卷

期数:

2023年03期

页码:

17-34

栏目:

国际经济与贸易

出版日期:

2023-09-01

文章信息/Info

Title:

General equilibrium analysis of the effect of RCEP on trade flow and welfare

文章编号:

1671-6248(2023)03-0017-18

作者:

张天顶¹; 李汇思²

(1. 武汉大学 经济与管理学院,湖北 武汉 430072; 2. 浙江大学 经济学院,浙江 杭州 310058)

Author(s):

ZHANG Tianding¹;  LI Huisi²

(1. Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Hubei 430072, Wuhan, China; 2. Economics School, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 520038, Zhejiang, China)

关键词:

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》;  深度贸易协定;  结构引力模型;  一般均衡分析;  总出口;  中间品贸易

Keywords:

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP);  deep trade agreement;  Structural Gravity Model;  general equilibrium analysis;  total export;  trade in intermediate goods

分类号:

F744

DOI:

-

文献标志码:

A

摘要:

区域贸易协定对成员国、非成员国间国际贸易和福利的影响效应一直是国际贸易领域中被广泛关注的焦点问题。为研究RCEP生效所产生的经济效应,使用全球范围内40个国家或地区间以及国内总贸易流量、分部门贸易流量的面板数据,与区域贸易协定数据进行匹配,进而构建研究的基础数据集。基于结构引力模型的分析框架,从广延边际和集约边际视角对RCEP生效的经济效应展开反事实模拟分析,量化RCEP生效对各国的国际贸易和GDP变动的影响效应。研究认为,两种反事实模拟分析手段下,RCEP生效对成员经济体总出口和分部门出口的贸易创造效应表现突出; 贸易转移效应不明显,研究样本中还存在着逆向的贸易转移效应; RCEP生效对成员经济体福利水平影响可控,没有发现影响RCEP稳定性的福利净损失严重等突出问题。研究还认为,RCEP将促进中国的总出口、农业、制造业、服务业和中间品出口的增长,加快中国与亚太地区各国或地区贸易融合速度,相关部门需要结合协定,加快完善国内相关政策法规,选择重点领域和行业,制定实施方案,为协定的实施提供制度保障; 相关行业协会需要加快对标国际先进产业水平,做好提升标准、完善规则等相关准备。

Abstract:

The effect of regional trade agreements on international trade and welfare between member countries and non-member countries has always been the focus of extensive attention in the field of international trade. In order to study the economic effects of RCEP's entry into force, this paper uses the panel data of 40 countries or regions and domestic total trade flow and sub-sector trade flow to match with the data of regional trade agreements, and then constructs the basic data set of the research. Based on the analytical framework of the Structural Gravity Model, a counterfactual simulation analysis of the economic effects of RCEP's entry into force is carried out from the perspectives of extensive and intensive marginals, and the impact of RCEP's entry into force on the international trade and GDP changes of various countries is quantified. According to the study, under the two counterfactual simulation analysis methods, the trade creation effect of RCEP on the total export and sub-sector export of member economies is outstanding; the trade diversion effect is not obvious, and there is still a reverse trade diversion effect in the research sample; the impact of RCEP's entry into force on the welfare levels of member economies is controllable, and no prominent problems such as serious net welfare losses that affect the stability of RCEP have been found. RCEP will promote the growth of China's total export, agriculture, manufacturing, service industry and intermediate product export, and accelerate the speed of trade integration between China and countries or regions in the Asia-Pacific region. Relevant authorities need to speed up the improvement of relevant domestic regulations and policies based on agreements, and select key areas and industries to formulate implementation plans and provide institutional guarantees for the implementation of the agreements; relevant industry associations need to speed up the benchmarking of international advanced industrial levels, and make relevant preparations for raising standards and improving rules.

参考文献/References:

[1] SHIMIZU K.The ASEAN Economic Community and the RCEP in the world economy[J].Journal of contemporary East Asia studies,2021,10(1):1-23.
[2]FUKAGAWA Y.Integration in Asia following mega-FTAs:Asia-Pacific,Indo-Pacific,or Eurasia?[EB/OL].(2021-05-01)[2022-11-23].https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/71195.
[3]陈淑梅,倪菊华.中国加入“区域全面经济伙伴关系”的经济效应——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析[J].亚太经济,2014(2):125-133.
[4]孟猛,郑昭阳.TPP与RCEP贸易自由化经济效果的可计算一般均衡分析[J].国际经贸探索,2015(4):67-75.
[5]刘宇,吕郢康,刘莹.时间成本视角下RCEP对中国的经济影响——基于GTAP模型的测算[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(11):2777-2790.
[6]PETRI P A,PLUMMER M G,ZHAI F.The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific integration:a quantitative assessment[M].Washington D.C.:Peterson Institute,2012.
[7]SHEPHERD B.Mega-regional trade agreements and Asia:an application of structural gravity to goods,services,and value chains[J].Journal of the Japanese and international economies,2019(51):32-42.
[8]ANDERSON J E,WINCOOP V E.Gravity with gravitas:a solution to the border puzzle [J].The American economic review,2003,93(1):170-192.
[9]ANDERSON J E,LARCH M,YOTOV Y V.GEPPML:general equilibrium analysis with PPML [J].The world economy,2018,41(10):2750-2782.
[10]YOTOV Y V,PIERMARTINI R,MONTEIRO J A,et al.An advanced guide to trade policy analysis:the structural gravity model[M].New York:United Nations and WTO,2017.
[11]BALDWIN R E.Multilateralising 21st century regionalism[EB/OL].(2014-01-20)[2022-11-23].https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/multilateralising-21st-century-regionalism.
[12]MATTOO A,MULABDIC A,RUTA M.Trade creation and trade diversion in deep agreements[J].Canadian journal of economics,2022(55):1598-1637.
[13]ARKOLAKIS C,COSTINOT A,RODRIGUEZ-CLARE A.New trade models,same old gains? [J].The American economic review,2012,102(1):94-130.
[14]张天顶,龚同.全球化力量重塑区域主义:全球价值链分工与区域贸易协定网络形成[J].世界经济研究,2022(7):18-31.
[15]VINER J.The customs union issue[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,2014.
[16]BAIER S L,BERGSTRAND J H,FEN M.Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade[J].Journal of international economics,2014,93(2):339-350.
[17]HEAD K,MAYER T.Gravity equations:workhorse,toolkit,and cookbook[J].Handbook of international economics,2014(4):131-195.
[18]KOHL T,BRAKMAN S,GARRETSEN H.Do trade agreements stimulate international trade differently? evidence from 296 trade agreements[J].The world economy,2016,39(1):97-131.
[19]BAIER S L,BERGSTRAND J H,CLANCE M W.Heterogeneous effects of economic integration agreements[J].Journal of development economics,2018(135):587-608.
[20]蔡鹏鸿.东亚双边自由贸易区的国际政治经济学分析[J].当代亚太,2005(3):3-8.
[21]CHENG I H,WALL H J.Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity model and integration [J].Federal reserve bank of St.Louis review,2015,87(1):49-63.
[22]BAIER S L,BERGSTRAND J H.Do free trade agreements actually increase members international trade? [J].Journal of international economics,2007,71(1):72-95.
[23]OREFICE G,ROCHA N.Deep integration and production networks:an empirical analysis[J].The world economy,2013,37(1):106-136.
[24]MAGEE C S P.New measures of trade creation and trade diversion[J].Journal of international economics,2008(75):349-362.
[25]SILVA S J,TENREYRO S.The log of gravity[J].The review of economics and statistics,2006,88(4):641-658.
[26]BAIER S L,YOTOV Y V,ZYLKIN T.On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements:lessons from twenty years of trade integration[J].Journal of international economics,2019(116):206-226.
[27]MATTOO A,ROCHA N,RUTA M.Handbook of deep trade agreements[M].Washington D.C.:World Bank Publications,2020.
[28]ANDERSON J E.A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation[J].American economic review,1979,69(1):106-116.
[29]ARTHUR D,VASSILVITSKII S.K-means:the advantages of careful seeding[EB/OL].(2007-05-01)[2022-11-23].https://www.docin.com/p-1036024590.html.
[30]FONTAGNE L,ROCHA N,RUTA M,et al.The economic impact of deepening trade agreements [J].The World Bank economic review,2023(1):1-23.
[31]ROUSSEEUW P J.Silhouettes:a graphical aid to the interpretation and validation of cluster analysis[J].Journal of computational and applied mathematics,1987(20):53-65.
[32]MIROUDO S,RIGO D.Multinational production and investment provisions in preferential trade agreements[J].Journal of economic geography,2021(2):1-34.

相似文献/References:

[1]张礼卿,孙瑾.RCEP投资便利化条款及其影响[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2021,23(02):24.
　ZHANG Liqing,SUN Jin.RCEP investment facilitation provisions and their implications[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2021,23(03):24.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2023-01-04
基金项目:教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目(17JHQ035); 武汉大学研究生导师育人方式创新项目(2023YJ10501)
作者简介:张天顶(1978- ),男,吉林乾安人,教授,博士研究生导师,经济学博士。
通讯作者:李汇思(2001-),女,湖北恩施人,金融学硕士研究生。

常用功能

更新日期/Last Update: 2023-09-01