|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]冯晓玲,赵鹏鹏.中国对美国机电产品出口影响因素的实证分析[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2021,23(02):36-47.
　FENG Xiaoling,ZHAO Pengpeng.Empirical analysis on the factors affecting China’s exports ofmechanical and electrical products to U.S.[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2021,23(02):36-47.
点击复制

中国对美国机电产品出口影响因素的实证分析(PDF)
分享到：

《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:
第23卷
期数:
2021年02期
页码:
36-47
栏目:
国际经济与贸易
出版日期:
2021-03-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Empirical analysis on the factors affecting China’s exports ofmechanical and electrical products to U.S.
文章编号:
1671-6248(2021)02-0036-12
作者:
冯晓玲; 赵鹏鹏
大连海事大学 航运经济与管理学院,辽宁 大连 116026
Author(s):
FENG Xiaoling;  ZHAO Pengpeng
School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China
关键词:
中美贸易;  机电产品;  出口;  技术壁垒;  政策不确定性;  汇率;  特征性事实;  时间序列分解;  VAR模型
Keywords:
Sino-US trade;  mechanical and electrical product;  export;  technical barrier;  policy uncertainty;  exchange rate;  stylized fact;  time series decomposition;  VAR model
分类号:
F752.62
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究中美贸易摩擦前后中国对美国机电产品的出口变化及其影响因素,利用2015～2019年的月度数据,对特朗普就任美国总统前后中国对美机电产品的出口特征进行了分析,并基于VAR模型结合Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解对中国对美机电产品出口的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究认为,美国技术壁垒增多对中国对美机电产品出口的阻碍作用明显,美国国内需求增加会在短期内促进美国从中国进口机电产品,人民币贬值对机电产品出口的影响可能存在“J曲线效应”,机电产品价格上涨反而促进了美国从中国进口机电产品,美国经济景气情况和经济政策不确定性对中国对美机电产品出口的影响较小。因此,注重机电产品出口市场多元化,降低技术壁垒的影响,合理使用汇率政策以及稳定中美经贸关系,将有助于中国未来对美机电产品的出口。
Abstract:
Based on the monthly data from 2015 to 2019, this paper analyzes the stylized facts of China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products to U.S. before and after Donald J. Trump became president, in order to study the changes and the factors affecting China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products to U.S. before and after the Sino-US trade conflicts. Based on the VAR model and Granger causality test, impulse response function and series decomposition, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on those factors. It concludes that the increase of technical barriers in U.S. has an obvious hindering effect on China’s export of mechanical and electrical products to U.S.; and the increase of domestic demand in U.S. will promote the import of mechanical and electrical products from China in the short term; the devaluation of RMB may have a "J curve effect" on the export of mechanical and electrical products; while the rise in the price of mechanical and electrical products has in turn promoted the export of mechanical and electrical products to U.S.; the economic prosperity of U.S. and its economic policy uncertainty have little influence on China’s export of mechanical and electrical products to U.S.. Therefore, paying attention to the diversification of the export market of mechanical and electrical products, reducing the impact of technical barriers, using exchange rate policy rationally and stabilizing Sino-US economic and trade relations will contribute to China’s future exports of mechanical and electrical products to U.S..

参考文献/References:

[1] 杨珍增,杨宏.美国“301调查”征税清单调整的政治经济学分析[J].国际贸易问题,2020(1):82-93.
[2]江小涓.中国出口商品结构的决定因素和变化趋势[J].经济研究,2007(5):4-16.
[3]孙晓琴,黄怡伟.金融危机下贸易保护对中国出口影响的实证分析——以对美出口机电产品遭遇技术性贸易壁垒为例[J].国际经贸探索,2009(12):32-38.
[4]李思奇,何海燕.美国技术壁垒对我国机电产品出口的影响[J].商业研究,2011(10):202-207.
[5]杨逢珉,陈媛媛.中国机电产品出口增长波动研究——基于六大出口市场的研究[J].会计与经济研究,2016(4):111-127.
[6]冯晓玲,马彪.中国对美机电产品出口增长的三元边际分析[J].经济视角,2016(2):86-95.
[7]胡君茹,卫旭东.中美动力机械及设备产品产业内贸易实证研究[J].国际商务研究,2011(6):17-22.
[8]涂晓今,张晓靓.中美机电制造业产品内贸易及利益分配实证分析——基于美国跨国公司对华直接投资视角[J].福州大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012,26(5):16-24.
[9]王细芳.中美机电产品外贸竞争力比较[J].中国经贸导刊,2012(19):46-48
[10]侯俊燕,邹宗森.中国机电产品出口竞争力及其影响因素的实证研究[J].对外经贸,2017(2):4-6.
[11]孙利平.“一带一路”沿线国家机电产业出口竞争力比较分析——基于出口技术复杂度视角[J].临沂大学学报,2019,41(1):111-121.
[12]刘进,雷飞,霍龙.中美贸易摩擦对中国机电产品出口的影响与对策[J].对外贸易实务,2019(4):57-60.
[13]吕越,娄承蓉,杜映昕,等.基于中美双方征税清单的贸易摩擦影响效应分析[J].财经研究,2019(2):59-72.
[14]孔翠.贸易逆风期外贸内生动力的创新与效益分析[J].价格月刊,2019(12):35-41.
[15]Stock J H, Watson M W. Vector autoregressions[J]. Journal of Economic Perspective,2001(4):101-105.
[16]Baker S R,Bloom N,Davis S J.Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016(4):1593-1636.
[17]Daniela V A,Liliana D,Gabriela D.Investments, economic growth and employment:VAR method for Romania[J].Studies in Business and Economics,2019(14):231-244.
[18]Mohanty A,Chaturvedi D.Relationship between electricity energy consumption and GDP:evidence from India[J].International Journal of Economics and Finance,2015(2):186-202.
[19]黄静波,孙晓艳.短期国内外经济冲击对广东省出口贸易影响的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2009(2):3-11.
[20]车春鹂,许安.中国机电产品出口中东欧国家的潜力分析——基于引力模型的实证研究[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2016,23(5):26-37.
[21]张静中,曾勇.中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家机电产品出口潜力研究——基于扩展引力模型的实证分析[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2017(4):5-11.

相似文献/References:

[1]余淼杰.中美贸易摩擦的认识误区和正解[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2018,20(05):32.
　YU Miaojie.Sino-US trade frictionmisunderstanding and truth[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2018,20(02):32.
[2]余淼杰,祝辉煌,高恺琳,等.美国议员对华贸易态度的现状与展望[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2018,20(06):12.
　YU Miaojie,ZHU Huihuang,GAO Kailin,et al.Status and outlook of U.S. congressional representatives’ attitude towards trade with China[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2018,20(02):12.
[3]余淼杰,郑纯如,黄淏铨.美国贸易政策的历史演变及启示[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2019,21(05):1.
　YU Miaojie,ZHENG Chunru,HUANG Haoquan.Historical evolution and implications of the trade policy in the United States[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2019,21(02):1.
[4]叶阿忠,付玉.国际油价冲击对中国对外贸易影响的实证分析[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2020,22(03):36.
　YE Azhong,FU Yu.Empirical analysis on the impact of international oil price shocks on China’s foreign trade[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2020,22(02):36.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-11-05
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(18BGJ012)
作者简介:冯晓玲(1977-),女,吉林通化人,教授,硕士研究生导师,经济学博士。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-03-10