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[1]王保忠,何炼成.中国碳减排与GDP增长的实证分析[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2020,22(03):55-67.
　WANG Baozhong,HE Liancheng.Empirical analysis on China’s carbon emission reduction and GDP growth[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2020,22(03):55-67.
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中国碳减排与GDP增长的实证分析(PDF)
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《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:
第22卷
期数:
2020年03期
页码:
55-67
栏目:
经济与管理
出版日期:
2020-05-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Empirical analysis on China’s carbon emission reduction and GDP growth
作者:
王保忠1; 何炼成2
1.西安工程大学 管理学院，陕西 西安 710048;2.西北大学 经济管理学院，陕西 西安 710062
Author(s):
WANG Baozhong1; HE Liancheng2
1. School of Management，Xi’an Polytechnic University，Xi’an 710048，Shaanxi，China；2. School of Economics and Management，Northwestern University，Xi’an 710062，Shaanxi，China
关键词:
GDP; 碳排放强度; 陕西省; 离散二阶差分预测; 煤炭消费比重; 向量自回归; 脉冲响应函数
Keywords:
GDP; carbon emission intensity; Shaanxi province; discrete difference equation prediction; coal consumption proportion ratio; vector autoregression model; impulse response function
分类号:
X321；F224
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究中国经济发展速度和碳排放增长的规律，基于陕西省1980~2018年碳排放量和GDP的实际数据，运用离散二阶差分预测方程预测陕西省2020年碳排放量和GDP，得到陕西2020年碳排放强度的预测值；通过构建向量自回归模型，对1980～2018年间陕西省碳排放量和GDP实际数据序列和预测数据序列进行了相关性比对，检验了DDEPM预测方法准确性。研究表明，陕西省能够实现中国2020碳减排目标，目标实现的主要贡献来自于GDP快速增长形成的分母拉动效应，但长期来看这种效应存在一定程度的不可持续；各省份应当从碳排放的绝对量上寻找突破路径，增加低碳技术和煤炭高效利用技术的投入与研发，提高单位煤耗的利用效率；提升清洁能源技术研发水平，加大现有新能源使用力度和效率，实现降低碳排放水平和中国社会经济可持续发展的目标。
Abstract:
Based on the annual amount of carbon emissions and actual GDP data of Shaanxi province in 1980~2018, this paper uses the Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model (DDEPM) to forecast Shaanxi’s carbon emission and GDP in order to study China’s economic development speed and the patterns in carbon emission increase, and then obtains the predicted carbon emission intensity of the province in 2020. By constructing a vector autoregression model (VAR), this paper conducts a correlation analysis comparing the amount of carbon emissions of Shaanxi province in 1980~2018 with the actual and predicted data sequences of GDP, and examines the accuracy of the DDEPM forecast method. Research shows that the 2020 carbon emission reduction targets of Shaanxi province put forward by the central government can be achieved.The denominator driving effect resulted from the rapid growth of GDP is the main factor contributing to the achievement of targets, but in the long term this effect is not sustainable to a certain extent. All provinces and regions should look for path of breakthrough in terms of reducing the absolute amount of carbon emissions, increase the input and R&D of lowcarbon technology and highly efficient utilization technology of coal, enhance the utilization efficiency of coal consumption per unit, improve the R&D level of clean energy technology, amplify the utilization rate of existing new energy resources and efficiency, and aim to achieve targets both in reducing carbon emissions and the social and economic sustainable development of China.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
陕西省社会科学基金项目（2017D016）；西安市科协项目（201801）；陕西省科技厅资助软科学项目(2018KRM161)
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-07-02