|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]徐海成,李健,杨艳.中国公路交通与经济发展关系的实证研究[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2007,9(02):8-13.
　XU Hai-cheng,LI Jian,YANG Yan.Relationship between highway transportation and economic development in China[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2007,9(02):8-13.
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中国公路交通与经济发展关系的实证研究 (PDF)
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《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:
第9卷
期数:
2007年02期
页码:
8-13
栏目:
专家论坛
出版日期:
2007-06-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Relationship between highway transportation and economic development in China
作者:
徐海成; 李健; 杨艳
长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安　710064
Author(s):
XU Hai-cheng;  LI Jian;  YANG Yan
School of Economics and Management, Chang'an University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China
关键词:
交通运输工程; 交通运输规划与管理; 公路交通; 经济发展; 协整理论; Granger因果关系;  经济规模; 交通规划
Keywords:
traffic and transportation engineering;  planning and managing of transportation;  highway transportation;  economic development;  Co-integration theory;  Granger causality;  economic scale;  traffic planning
分类号:
F54
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于时间序列数据,利用协整理论和Granger因果检验方法对公路交通与经济发展的关系 进行实证研究。研究表明: 1978～ 1991年两者之间不存在长期均衡发展和Granger因果关系;而 1992～ 2005年中国公路交通与经济发展存在协整关系和双向因果关系。通过建立协整回归方程 对未来中国公路交通发展进行数量方面的预测,并将预测结果与“十一五”交通部公路发展规划比 较,从而提出合理规划公路交通发展的建议:“十一五”公路发展规划接近中国经济发展水平,但在 一定程度上还不能满足经济发展水平的要求;将公路交
Abstract:
Based on the time series data, the paper studies the relationship between the highway transportation and the economic development through Co-integration theory and Granger causality test method. Put into different periods, it indicates that there was no such relationship from 1978 to 1991 while from 1992 to 2005 there was harmonious and two-way causality relationship. By establishing the Co-integration regression equation to predict the future of highway transportation in terms of quantity and through comparing it with the development plan of the Ministry of Communications for the“ Eleventh Five-year” plan, the paper proposes that: 1)the highway development plan for the“ Eleventh Five-year” plan is close to the economic development of China, but it is unable to satisfy the demand of the economic development;2)the method of dividing the course of highway development into two periods reveals the internal logic and quantitative relation in different stages. The conclusion is that there should be a long-term balance between highway transportation and economic development with the strategy of the former moderately exceeding the latter, and in China the exceeding period should be 2-3 years.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2007-04-10
作者简介:徐海成(1960-),男,陕西泾阳人,教授,博士研究生导师。
更新日期/Last Update: 2007-06-20