|Table of Contents|

Research on Coordinated Development of Road Transportation and National Economy(PDF)

《长安大学学报(社科版)》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

Issue:
2019年03期
Page:
49-58
Research Field:
经济与管理
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Research on Coordinated Development of Road Transportation and National Economy
Author(s):
 Fan Jianqiang Duan Hena Shu Lang
 School of Economics and Management Chang’ An University
 School of finance,Nankai University
Keywords:
transportation economycoordinated development forecast grey forecastingmodel highway transportation national economy
PACS:
U-9,F542
DOI:
-
Abstract:
 Advancing the coordinated studies of highway transportation and national economic development is necessary for maintaining the sustained and robust development of China’s economy. The trend prediction and analysis of the future coordinated development between the two boast of certain reference value for China’s highway transportation and the formulation of national economic policies. For this purpose, the gray forecasting GM (1,1) model and the modified model are adopted in this paperwith the Cluster Analysis used to select indicators for highway transportation and national economy. With the relevant data of highway transportation and national economy in consideration, the 2017~2020 forecast is made for each evaluation index. Then the degrees of association and coupling between highway transportation and national economy evaluation indicators are calculated, based on which the future coordinated development of highway transportation and national economy is subject to empirical analysis. The results show that the correlation between the various national economy indicators and highway transportation is relatively strong, with an overall value above 0.70. From the perspective of the highway transportation industry, the actual use of foreign capital is the most relevant to the highway transportation industry, followed by the gross domestic product and the fixed assets investment of the whole society. From the perspective of the national economy, the correlation between highway mileage and highway cargo turnover and the national economy is the strongest, while the highway passenger turn over is relatively weakly correlated with the latter. In terms of coupling degree, the coupling degree between national economy and highway transportation industry shows a declining trend, indicating that in the next few years, the stability of the coordinated development between China’s highway transportation and national economy will witness a gradual decline.

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Last Update: 2019-08-23