An empirical study on the impact of FTA on welfare of China and Countries under Belt and Road Initiative(PDF)
《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]
- Issue:
- 2018年06期
- Page:
- 27-37
- Research Field:
- 国际经济与贸易
- Publishing date:
Info
- Title:
- An empirical study on the impact of FTA on welfare of China and Countries under Belt and Road Initiative
- Author(s):
- ZANG Hanfen
- 1. Graduate School， Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488，China; 2. Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Beijing 100732，China
- Keywords:
- The Belt and Road” initiative; welfare effect; international trade model; Free Trade Agreement; tariff
- PACS:
- F752.5
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Ever since “The Belt and Road” initiative was put forward，more and more countries have been involved in the cooperation and construction under the strategy.Free Trade Agreement(FTA) can promote trade cooperation among countries and eliminate or reduce trade barriers and improve the social welfare of residents of these nations. In order to quantify the trade and welfare impacts of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on China and other countries，this paper adopts the CaliendoParro model based on Ricardo’s comparative advantage，EatonKortuminternational trade model and Intersectoral inputoutput table. An international trade model，which includes 40 sectors of 43 countries，was constructed，and the welfare and import and export effects of the Free Trade Agreement signed by China between 2005 and 2011 were calculated by using the welfare calculation formula in the model. The welfare changes and import and export effects of China and “The Belt and Road”countries were simulated and calculated if the tariff was zero. The results showed that the zero tariff will promote the welfare of“The Belt and Road”countries and European Union countries with an average increase of 0.86% in 29 countries，among which, 17 countries of EU reaches 0.72%And it will also promote the growth of China’s imports and exports，such as the increase in China’s exports to South Korea by 128.00%，China’s imports from Slovakia increased by 140.20%. However，for the countries that have signed and implemented Free Trade Agreement with China，their welfare increases in imports and exports were little under zero tariff. For example，the welfare of Peru would increased by 0.06% and the welfare of Chile would increased by 0.03%; In terms of imports and exports，China’s imports from New Zealand would increase by 24.00%，and China’s exports to Peru would increase by 53.80%. Therefore，China should adhere to multilateralism and international trade liberalization，sign Free Trade Agreement with more “The Belt and Road” countries，and use the free trade area with“The Belt and Road”countries to hedge SinoUS trade frictions，and explore new free trade agreement rules and regulatory measures in the modern times.
Last Update: 2019-02-25