|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]刘乃郗,洪碧霄,潘明睿.世界经济增长的长期停滞:问题、成因与对策[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2022,24(06):33-48.
 LIU Naixi,HONG Bixiao,PAN Mingrui.Long-term stagnation of world economic growth:problems, causes and solutions[J].Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition),2022,24(06):33-48.
点击复制

世界经济增长的长期停滞:问题、成因与对策(PDF)
分享到:

《长安大学学报(社科版)》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:
第24卷
期数:
2022年06期
页码:
33-48
栏目:
国际经济与贸易
出版日期:
2022-12-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Long-term stagnation of world economic growth:problems, causes and solutions
文章编号:
1671-6248(2022)06-0033-16
作者:
刘乃郗洪碧霄潘明睿
(外交学院 国际经济学院,北京 100037)
Author(s):
LIU Naixi HONG Bixiao PAN Mingrui
(School of International Economics, China Foreign Affairs University, Beijing 100037, China)
关键词:
世界经济增长 经济周期 宏观数据 金融治理 技术合作 粮食安全
Keywords:
world economic growth economic cycle macro data financial governance technological cooperation food safety
分类号:
F113
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
全球次贷金融危机和全球新冠肺炎疫情冲击以来,世界经济增长陷入停滞的困境,通过宏观历史数据分析,发现这种长期停滞主要表现为7项特征事实:全球经济增速长期低迷、贸易增速总体下降、FDI较为低迷且结构分化不断加剧、发达国家面临通缩压力而发展中国家面临通胀压力、失业压力持续高悬、粮食危机频发、全要素生产率增长放缓。研究认为,形成这种长期停滞的成因主要包括政府债务不断增长、世界人口老龄化加剧、人力资本水平提升放缓、技术进步的推动力不断下降、新旧能源替代的产业冲击、世界产业结构迁移升级愈加缓慢、民粹主义和保护主义的加剧、世界各国财富分配不平等普遍扩大、单一美元主导的全球货币体系结构性矛盾、地缘政治风险频发等方面的结构性问题。研究还认为,在解决所有约束之中,形成更加负责任的国际经济与产业合作治理体系,开展更为强劲的技术合作创新,积极改善收入和财富分配不平等,重视加强国际金融治理合作等,是世界经济增长突破长期停滞困境的关键问题,也是进一步带动其他长期内生动能不断增强的重要因素。
Abstract:
Since the breakout of the subprime financial crisis in 2008 and the recent impact of the global pandemic COVID-19, the world economic growth has been stagnant for quite a long time. Based on macro historical data analysis, it has been found that this long-term stagnation has seven characteristics: sustained sluggish economic growth speed, overall declining trend in trade growth, relatively low FDI and the intensifying structural differentiation of FDI, deflationary pressures for developed countries and inflationary pressures for developing countries, constant high unemployment rate, frequent food crisis, and slowed total factor productivity growth rate. This research suggests that the main causes of this long-term stagnation mainly include ten structural issues: the continuous growth of government debt, the aggravation of the aging of the overall world population, the slowdown of the improvement of human capital level, the continuous decline in the driving force of technological progress, the industrial impact of replacing old energy with new energy, the increasingly slow migration and upgrading of the world industrial structure, the intensification of populism and protectionism, the widening inequality in wealth distribution all over the world, structural conflicts in the global monetary system that is dominated by the single dollar, and frequent geopolitical risks. In dealing with all these constraints, forming a more responsible international economic and industrial cooperative governance, carrying out closer technological cooperation and innovation, actively reducing the inequality in income and wealth distribution, and paying more attention to strengthening international financial governance cooperation are the four key issues that need to be addressed promptly for the world economic growth to break out of the stagnation. They are also important factors that further promote the continuous strengthening of other long-term endogenous drivers.

参考文献/References:

[1] DELPACHITRA S,VAN DAI P.The determinants of TFP growth in middle income economies in ASEAN:Implication of financial crises[J].International journal of business and economics,2012,11(1):63-76.
[2]ERTUGRUL Y,ALPER A.Energy consumption and economic growth in the USA:evidence from renewable energy[J].Renewable and sustainable energy reviews,2012,16(9):6770-6774.
[3]JORGENSON D W,HO M S,SAMUELS J D.What will revive U.S.economic growth? lessons from a prototype industry-level production account for the United States[J].Journal of policy modeling,2014,36(4):674-691.
[4]WANG S X,FU Y B,ZHANG Z G.Population growth and the environmental Kuznets Curve[J].China economic review,2015,36(4):146-165.
[5]CETTE G,FERNALD J,MOJON B.The pre-great recession slowdown in productivity[J].European economic review,2016,88(3):3-20.
[6]MAESTAS N,MULLEN K J,POWELL D.The effect of population aging on economic growth,the labor force and productivity[EB/OL].(2016-08-01)[2022-06-03].https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR1063-1.html.
[7]汪伟.人口老龄化、生育政策调整与中国经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2017(1):67-96.
[8]许长青,周丽萍.教育公平与经济增长的关系研究——基于中国1978—2014年数据的经验分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(10):28-40.
[9]云喆,张茹茹,周鹏.人力资本抑或创新创业:中国经济转型的内生增长路径分析[J].经济问题探索,2020(9):12-25.
[10]COWEN T.The great stagnation:how America ate all the low-hanging fruit of modern history,got sick,and will(eventually)feel better[M].New York:Penguin Group,2011.
[11]SUMMERS L U S.Economic prospects:secular stagnation,hysteresis,and the zero lower bound[J].Business economics,2014,49(2):65-73.
[12]GORDON R J.A new method of estimating potential real GDP growth:implications for the labor market and the debt/GDP Ratio[EB/OL].(2014-09-03)[2022-10-26].https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2490835#.
[13]GORDON R J.Secular stagnation:a supply-side view[J].American economic review,2015,105(5):54-59.
[14]BING W,JOHN F.The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth[EB/OL].(2015-02-09)[2022-09-21].https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2015-04.pdf.
[15]ANDREWS D,CRISCUOLO C,GAL P N.The best versus the rest:the global productivity slowdown,divergence across firms and the role of public policy[EB/OL].(2016-12-09)[2022-06-01].https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/paper/63629cc9-en.
[16]ACEMOGLU D,RESTREPO P.Secular stagnation? the effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation[J].American economic review,2017,107(5):174-179.
[17]陈长缨.全球生产率“减速”与新一轮科技产业革命[EB/OL].(2018-04-21)[2022-03-08].https://xianxiao.ssap.com.cn/catalog/1599372.html.
[18]宋佳音,谭璇,范志勇.长期停滞及其应对方案——基于“全球化深化”的视角[J].政治经济学评论,2020,11(4):161-179.
[19]SCHMITT-GROH? S,URIBE M.The optimal rate of inflation[EB/OL].(2010-01-30)[2022-07-08].https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/24061168.pdf.
[20]OMAY T,KAN E Ö.Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel:evidence from six industrialized economies[J].Economic modelling,2010,27(5):996-1005.
[21]REINHART C M,ROGOFF K S.Growth in a time of debt[J].American economic review,2010,100(2):573-578.
[22]COIBION O, GORODNICHENKO Y,WIELAND J F.The optimal inflation rate in New Keynesian Models[J].Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(4):1371-1406.
[23]WOLFF G B.Monetary policy cannot solve secular stagnation alone[EB/OL].(2014-09-27)[2022-06-01].http://gesd.free.fr/cepr2014.pdf#page=147.
[24]TEULINGS C,BALDWIN R.Secular stagnation:facts, causes and cures[EB/OL].(2019-09-11)[2022-06-01].http://gesd.free.fr/cepr2014.pdf.
[25]EGGERTSSON G B.MEHROTRA N R,SINGH S R,et al.A contagious malady? open economy dimensions of secular stagnation[J].IMF economic review,2016,64(4):581-634.
[26]权衡.世界经济的结构性困境与发展新周期及中国的新贡献[J].世界经济研究.2016(12):3-11.
[27]CHECHERITA-WESTPHAL C,ROTHER P.The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth:an empirical investigation for the Euro Area[J].European economic review,2012,56(7):1392-1405.
[28]何德旭,张斌彬.全球四次债务浪潮的演进、特征及启示[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,38(3):43-63.
[29]SUMMERS L H.Demand side secular stagnation[J].American economic review:papers and proceedings,2015,105(5):60-65.
[30]EVERS J H M,IRON D,KOLOKOLNIKOV T,et al.Agent-based model of the effect of globalization on inequality and class mobility[J].Physica D:nonlinear phenomena,2017,361(8):35-41.
[31]HANDLEY K,LIMAO N.Trade and investment under policy uncertainty:theory and firm evidence[J].American economic journal:economic policy,2015,7(4):189-222.
[32]李晓,丁一兵.世界经济长期增长困境与中国经济增长转型[J].社会科学文摘,2017(10):47-49.
[33]蔡昉.中国经济如何置身全球“长期停滞”之外[J].世界经济与政治,2020(9):4-22.
[34]BALDWIN C Y.The mirroring hypothesis:linkages inside and across transaction free zones[EB/OL].(2020-08-12)[2022-06-01].https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3690592.
[35]赵丽娜.世界经济格局大调整与中国外贸高质量发展[J].理论学刊,2021(1):59-68.
[36]TAYLOR J B.Discretion versus policy rules in practice[J].Carnegie rochester conference series on public policy,1993,39(1):195-214.
[37]许平祥.经济虚拟化与长期停滞的困境[J].天津师范大学学报(社会科学版),2016(4):64-73.
[38]殷波.中国经济的最优通货膨胀[J].经济学(季刊),2011,10(3):821-844.
[39]贺力平,马伟.论发展中国家的通货膨胀、汇率变动与贸易增长[J].金融评论,2016,8(6):1-19.
[40]EICHENGREEN B.Secular stagnation:the long view[J].The American economic review,2015,105(5):66-70.
[41]EDEN M,KRAAY A.“Crowding in” and the returns to government investment in low-income countries[EB/OL].(2014-02-01)[2022-06-01].https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3690592.
[42]TURNER A.Central banking after the crisis:no return to past certainties[J].Business economics,2015,50(3):114-127.
[43]张明,郑英,敬云川.欧债危机的现状评估、政策选择与演进前景[J].经济社会体制比较,2012(3):24-38.
[44]谢世清,向南.从欧债危机的影响看欧元区的发展趋势[J].宏观经济研究,2018(1):156-163.
[45]KUMAR M,WOO J.Public debt and growth[J].Economics,2015,82(328):705-739.
[46]郑君君,朱德胜,关之烨.劳动人口、老龄化对经济增长的影响:基于中国9个省市的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2014(4)149-159.
[47]周祝平,刘海斌.人口老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响[J].人口研究,2016,40(3):58-70.
[48]CHUI M, MANYIKA J, MIREMADI M.How many of your daily tasks could be automated?[EB/OL].(2015-12-14)[2022-06-01].https://hbr.org/2015/12/how-many-of-your-daily-tasks-could-be-automated.
[49]GORDON R J.The Demise of U.S.economic growth:restatement,rebuttal,and reflections[EB/OL].(2014-02-21)[2022-05-08].https://www.nber.org/papers/w19895.
[50]夏先良.当前应做好全球经济陷入严重危机的战略准备[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2020(8):62-79.
[51]LOECKER J D.EECKHOUT J.The rise of market power and the macroeconomic implications[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2020,135(2):561-644.
[52]CLIFFORD KRAUSS.Saudi oil price cut is a market shock with wide tremors[EB/OL].(2020-03-09)[2022-06-01].https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/business/energy-environment/ saudi-oil-price-impact.html.
[53]CORCORAN E.Re-engaging Russia[EB/OL].(2020-04-09)[2022-06-01].https://fpif.org/re-engaging-russia/.
[54]RAZZOUK N.OPEC+talks collapse,blowing hole in Russia-Saudi alliance[EB/OL].(2020-03-06)[2022-06-01].https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/opec-fails-to-reach-deal-as-russia-refuses-deeper-oil-cuts.
[55]OCAL O, OZTURK I, ASLAN A.Coal consumption and economic growth in Turkey[J].International journal of energy economics & policy,2013,3(2):193-198.
[56]BATLLE C.A method for allocating renewable energy source subsidies among final energy consumers[J].Energy policy,2011,39(5):2586-2595.
[57]蔡万刚.世界主要经济体产业结构变迁:路径与演化研究[J].河南社会科学,2020,28(4):2-10.
[58]郭强,张明,董昀.美国经济长期性停滞:现状、根源及对策分析[J].国际经济评论,2017(1):141-159,7.
[59]姚曦,赵海,徐奇渊.美国对华加征关税排除机制对产业链的影响[J].国际经济评论,2020(5):26-42.
[60]SUYANTO S,SALIM R.Foreign direct investment spill-overs and technical efficiency in the Indonesian pharmaceutical sector:firm level evidence[J].Applied economics,2013,45(3):383-395.
[61]管传靖.全球价值链与美国贸易政策的调适逻辑[J].世界经济与政治,2018(11):118 -155.
[62]DABLA-NORRIS E,KOCHHAR K,SUPHAPHIPHAT N,et al.Causes and consequences of income inequality:a global perspective[J].IMF staff discussion notes,2015,15(13):1.
[63]MILANOVIC B.Increasing capital income share and its effect on personal income inequality[R].LIS working papers,2016.
[64]GOPINATH G, STEIN J C.Banking,trade,and the making of a dominant currency[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2021,136(2):783-830.
[65]SCHWARTS A J.Globalizing capital:a history of the international monetary system[J].The journal of economic history,1998,58(2):617-618.
[66]张明,李曦晨.人民币国际化的策略转变:从旧“三位一体”到新“三位一体”[J].国际经济评论,2019(5)80-98.
[67]CARNEY M.The growing challenges for monetary policy in the current international monetary and financial system[EB/OL].(2019-08-23)[2022-08-08].https://www.bis.org/review/r190827b.pdf.
[68]程实,张明,陈兴动,等.全球经济与中国经济:新周期还是旧周期[J].国际经济评论,2018(2):24-51.
[69]CARNEY M.Uncertainty,the economy and policy[EB/OL].(2018-02-24)[2022-06-01].https://www.bis.org/review/r160704c.pdf.
[70]CALDARA D,IACOVIELLO M.Measuring geopolitical risk[J].FRB international finance discussion paper,2018.
[71]GLICK R,TAYLOR A M.Collateral damage:trade disruption and the economic impact of war[J].The review of economics and statistics,2010,92(1):102 -127.
[72]许锐翔,许祥云,施宇.经济政策不确定性与全球贸易低速增长——基于引力模型的分析[J].财经研究,2018,44(7):60-72.
[73]竺彩华.市场、国家与国际经贸规则体系重构[J].外交评论(外交学院学报),2019,36(5):1-33.
[74]袁志刚,郑志伟,葛劲峰.全球经济增长面临的困境与出路[J].学术月刊,2020,52(8):67-82.
[75]王碧珺,刘晓欣.中欧全面投资协定助力高水平开放[J].中国金融,2021(3):48-50.
[76]汤铎铎,刘学良,倪红福,等.全球经济大变局、中国潜在增长率与后疫情时期高质量发展[J].经济研究,2020,55(8):4-23.
[77]LI H,LOYALKA P,ROZELLE S,et al.Human capital and China's future growth[J].Journal of economic perspectives,2017,31(1):25-48.
[78]崔俊富,陈金伟.数据生产要素对中国经济增长的贡献研究[J].管理现代化,2021,41(2):32-34.
[79]邹静娴,申广军.金融危机后“长期停滞”假说的提出与争论[J].国际经济评论,2019(4):26-43.
[80]袁佳,高宏.中国居民收入和财富分配格局及改善对策[J].新金融,2021(1):18-22.
[81]张明.世界经济中的“三低两高”现象[J].金融博览,2021(4):40-41.

相似文献/References:

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-06-30
基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AZD012); 外交学院中央高校基本科研业务费专项智库类项目(3162021ZK01)
作者简介:刘乃郗(1986-),男,重庆丰都人,讲师,经济学博士。
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-12-20