|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]荆涛,杨舒,王月慈.寿险公司投资养老地产风险评价指标体系的构建[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2019,21(04):28-39.
　JING Tao,YANG Shu,WANG Yueci.Establishment of the risk assessment index system of life insurance companies’ investment in old-age real estate[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2019,21(04):28-39.
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《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:
第21卷
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
28-39
栏目:
经济与管理
出版日期:
2019-07-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Establishment of the risk assessment index system of life insurance companies’ investment in old-age real estate
作者:
荆涛1; 杨舒2; 王月慈1
1.对外经济贸易大学 保险学院，北京 100029；2.中华女子学院 金融系，北京 100101）
Author(s):
JING Tao1; YANG Shu2; WANG Yueci1
1. School of Insurance and Economics，University of International Business and Economics，Beijing， 00029， China；2. Department of Finance，China Women’s University，Beijing, 100101， China
关键词:
经济与管理; 寿险公司; 层次分析法; 养老地产风险; 评价指标
Keywords:
economy and management;  life insurance company;  analytic hierarchy process;  oldAge real estate risk;  assessment index
分类号:
F293；F840
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
寿险公司在试水养老地产的过程中面临诸多风险，不仅制约着养老地产行业投资者的积极性，也不利于解决中国老龄化背景下养老产业供给短缺的问题。因此，建立科学的风险指标体系对养老地产投资风险进行定量评价，既能让养老地产的投资者及时进行风险识别及风险管理，又能促进中国养老服务供给侧改革。从宏观和微观两个维度量化分析寿险公司投资养老地产的风险，选取5个一级指标和13个二级指标构建寿险公司投资养老地产的风险评价指标体系。采用层次分析法确定各个指标的权重，运用模糊综合评价法作为评判的标准，构建出寿险公司投资养老地产风险综合评价模型，并以HZ寿险公司为例进行实证研究。研究认为：寿险公司在投资养老地产过程中面临政策、市场、经济、筹划、运营5个方面的风险因素；HZ寿险公司的养老地产项目总体风险偏高，但总体风险偏向于一般风险水平，因此合适进行房地产项目的开发与投资；从单因素评价结果可以看出，“政策风险”“有效需求不足风险”“管理与服务风险”风险级别较高，是寿险公司在今后投资养老地产过程中重点关注的风险。
Abstract:
Life insurance companies face many risks in the process of “testing water” in oldage real estate, which not only dampens the enthusiasm of investors in the oldage real estate industry, but also is not conducive to solving the shortage of oldage industry supply in the context of China’s aging society. Therefore, establishing a scientific risk index system for the quantitative assessment of the risks in oldage real estate investment not only allows the investors in this industry to carry out risk identification and risk management in a timely manner, but also promotes the reform on the supply side of the oldage care service in China. This paper quantitatively analyzes the risks of life insurance companies investing in the oldage real estate from the macro and micro dimensions, and selects five firstlevel indicators and 13 secondlevel indicators to construct a risk assessment index system for life insurance companies to invest in oldage real estate. The analytic hierarchy process is adopted to determine the weight of each index, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used as the criterion for judgment. The comprehensive risk assessment model of life insurance companies’ investment in oldage real estate is established, and HZ life insurance company is taken as an example for empirical research. The research results show that: life insurance companies face risk factors in five aspects, namely policy, market, economy, planning and operation in the process of investing in oldage real estate; HZ life insurance company’s oldage real estate project has high overall risk, but the overall risk is biased towards the general risk level, so it is feasible for the development and investment of real estate projects; From the results of single factor evaluation, it can be seen that the “policy risk”, “effective demand shortage risk” and “management and service risk” have higher risk levels, which require special focus from life insurance companies in the future investment in oldage real estate.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目（16YJA840004）作者简介：荆涛（1969-），女，吉林长春人，教授，博士研究生导师，经济学博士。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-07-25