贸易政策不确定性的度量、影响及其政策意义-《长安大学学报（社科版）》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Measurement, impact and policy implications of trade policy uncertainty

Author(s):: YU Miaojie; ZHU Huihuang; China Center for Economic Research & National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Keywords:: international economics and trade; literature review; trade policy uncertainty; investment; real option model

摘要:: 随着贸易保护主义风潮愈演愈烈，全球贸易政策不确定性逐步上升。为分析贸易政策不确定性对于经济的影响，回顾近年来有关贸易政策不确定性的相关研究，从贸易政策不确定性的度量、影响及其政策意义3个维度进行分析。研究认为，贸易政策不确定性是在关税之外对于企业出口会产生实质影响的因素，在实际经济活动中即使平均关税水平没有发生变化，如果贸易政策不确定性大幅度上升，将会导致企业推迟投资，打击企业出口新市场的积极性，对经济产生严重后果；维持稳定的对外关税政策、签订贸易协定有助于降低贸易政策不确定性，提升企业出口，带动经济增长；当一国政府决定实施关税威胁时，应当考虑实施关税威胁将提高该国的贸易政策不确定性，从而造成额外的福利损失。

Abstract:: At present, with the intensified trade protectionism, global trade policy uncertainty is rising. Thus, it is necessary to analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the economy. This paper reviews recent research on trade policy uncertainty from three dimensions: the measurement of trade policy uncertainty, the impact of trade policy uncertainty and its policy implications. Trade uncertainty refers to factors that substantially affect company exports beyond tariffs. In actual economic activities, even when the average tariff has not changed, if the trade policy uncertainty rises sharply, it will lead enterprises to delay investment and become unlikely to export to new markets, which will have severe consequences on the economy. Furthermore, we find that maintaining a stable tariff policy and signing trade agreements can help the country to reduce trade policy uncertainty, therefore enhancing company exports and driving economic growth. When a government decides to implement a tariff threat, consideration should be given to potential increase of the country’s trade policy uncertainty, resulting in additional welfare losses.