|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]余淼杰.中美贸易摩擦的认识误区和正解[J].长安大学学报(社科版),2018,20(05):32-41.
　YU Miaojie.Sino-US trade frictionmisunderstanding and truth[J].Journal of Chang＇an University(Social Science Edition),2018,20(05):32-41.
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中美贸易摩擦的认识误区和正解
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《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

卷:
第20卷
期数:
2018年05期
页码:
32-41
栏目:
经济学
出版日期:
2018-11-14

文章信息/Info

Title:
Sino-US trade frictionmisunderstanding and truth
文章编号:
1671-6248(2018)05-0032-010
作者:
余淼杰
北京大学 国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心，北京100871
Author(s):
YU Miaojie
China Center for Economic Research & National School of Development， Peking University， Beijing 100871， China
关键词:
中美贸易; 贸易失衡; 价值链; 统计口径; 关税; 贸易合作
Keywords:
Sino-US trade;  trade imbalance;  value chain;  statistic scope;  tariff;  trade cooperation
分类号:
F752.7；F757.12
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了全面理解中美贸易关系，解读中美贸易失衡的本质，从美方特别是特朗普当局如何看待中美贸易失衡入手，通过对中美贸易数据的研判，预测未来中美贸易发展走向。研究发现，特朗普当局认为中国政府对出口企业的补贴以及高关税政策，是中美贸易逆差的主要原因，导致美国制造业丢失了近300万个工作岗位，因此需要打压中国出口，对中国出口到美国的产品征收高关税来扭转贸易逆差，让中国长期处在全球贸易价值链的中低端。研究认为，美国对中美贸易额的统计口径过于简单，减少中国进口不能直接增加美国的就业人数，中国扩大出口能为美国提供“价优物美”产品，中国投资者又把贸易所得投资到美国购买国债，美国是贸易逆差的受益方；中国的大量贸易顺差是劳动密集型产品所得，在资本密集型产品中主要是把中间品加工成最终产品，贸易所得很小；此外，中国的关税政策符合WTO规则，美国也会以“国家安全”为由限制投资。因此，中国从全球贸易价值链的低端爬到中高端是经济发展的必然结果，中美应通过贸易谈判，争取经贸合作，才能够提高双方经贸规模，实现中美贸易朝着合理的方向再平衡。
Abstract:
To fully understand SinoUS trade relationship and interpret the nature of imbalance in trade between the two countries， this article starts from how US especially Trump administration views the imbalance and then predict the developing trend for SinoUS trade based on study of related statistics. Study shows that Trump administration considers Chinese government’s subsidy for exporting firms and high tariff policies as main reasons for US trade deficit that lead to loss of nearly 3 million jobs in US manufacturing industry. Therefore， they need to suppress China’s export and impose high tariffs on its goods exported to US to erase trade deficit， leaving China in the mid to low end of global trade value chain in the long term. The study thinks that US oversimplified its statistic scope on trade volume with China. Reducing imports from China cannot lead to direct increase in US employment. While increasing imports from China can provide US people with goods of lower price and good quality. Plus， Chinese investors invest the trade gain into US treasury bonds， making US the beneficiary of the trade deficit. China gains its trade surplus from large amount of laborintensive goods. While capitalintensive goods basically are final products processed from intermediate products， generating only very small profits. Besides， even if China’s tariff policy conforms with WTO rules and regulations， while US will restrict Chinese investments under national security reasons. Therefore， it is the inevitable trend that China will elevate from mid and low end of global trade value chain to mid and high end. To enhance trade scale on both sides， US and China should strive for trade cooperation through negotiations to achieve a rebalance of SinoUS trade in a more sensible direction.

参考文献/References:

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［2］Feenstra，Robert C，Inklaar R， et al. The next generation of the Penn World Table［J］. American Economic Review， 2015，105(10)：3150-3182.
［3］余淼杰，张睿.中国制造业出口质量的准确衡量:挑战与解决方法［J］.经济学：季刊， 2017， 16(2):463-484.
［4］余淼杰.余淼杰谈中美贸易:全球经贸新格局下的大国博弈［M］.北京：北京大学出版社，2018.
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［7］Guo M， Lu L， Sheng L， et al. The day after tomorrow: evaluating the burden of Trump’s trade war［J］. Asian Economic Papers， 2018， 17(1):101-120.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目：国家自然科学基金管理科学部面上项目(71573006)；教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目（15JJD780001）
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-11-14