|Table of Contents|

Impact of international bulk commodity price shocks on China's macroeconomy(PDF)

《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

Issue:
2021年03期
Page:
33-45
Research Field:
国际经济与贸易
Publishing date:
2021-07-20

Info

Title:
Impact of international bulk commodity price shocks on China's macroeconomy
Author(s):
ZHANG Tianding;  SHI Zhan
(School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, China)
Keywords:
international bulk commodity;  price fluctuation;  macroeconomy;  structural vector autoregression model;  inflation;  RMB interest rate;  output level
PACS:
F740.2
DOI:
-
Abstract:
The drastic fluctuations of the price of international bulk commodity have brought short-term problems and long-term challenges to the economic development of different types of countries or regions in the world. Based on the AD-AS theoretical framework, this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of international bulk commodity price shocks on China's macroeconomy, from the perspective of aggregate supply shock. This paper then constructs the structural vector autoregression(SVAR)model and employs impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to discuss the impact of international bulk commodity price shocks on China's macroeconomy, and distinguishes the heterogeneity of impact caused by different kinds of international bulk commodities. Results show that an increase in the international bulk commodity price can cause China's real output to decline initially, but it will boost China's real output level after three months. Compared with "hard bulk commodity", the "soft bulk commodity" has a greater positive impact on China's real output. Besides, higher international bulk commodity price can aggravate China's inflation, and the reaction of inflation to hard bulk commodity price fluctuations in China is more sensitive than that to soft bulk commodity in general. Additionally, the positive international bulk commodity price shock will lead to a rise of RMB interest rate through boosting inflation as well as increasing real output in China, while the fluctuations of international bulk commodity price does not have a significant impact on the RMB effective exchange rate.

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Last Update: 2021-07-20