Empirical analysis on the impact of international oil price shocks on China’s foreign trade(PDF)
《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]
- Issue:
- 2020年03期
- Page:
- 36-45
- Research Field:
- 国际经济与贸易
- Publishing date:
Info
- Title:
- Empirical analysis on the impact of international oil price shocks on China’s foreign trade
- Author(s):
- YE Azhong; FU Yu
- School of Economics and Management，Fuzhou University，Fuzhou 350108，Fujian，China
- Keywords:
- Sino-US trade; SinoJapanese trade; international oil price; crude oil; energy supplies; import and export trade; global vector autoregressive model
- PACS:
- F742；F752.7
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In order to study the impact of international oil price shocks and the fluctuations in the import and export trade volume of the United States and Japan on China’s import and export trade, this paper selects 18 countries which have a large amount of trade exchange with China, including the major countries in the Eurozone, BRIC countries and the countries in the ASEAN region, constructs a global vector autoregressive model, and analyzes the direction and degree of the impact of the international oil prices and the import and export trade volume of other countries on China’s international trade by way of the impulse response function. The results are as follows. (1) The fluctuations in international oil prices have an impact on China’s import and export trade volume. The rise in oil prices has a certain degree of positive effect on China’s import and a certain degree of negative effect on China’s export. (2) Increased imports from the United States and Japan will have a significant negative effect on China’s import and export trade; on the contrary，increased exports from the United States and Japan will have a significant positive effect on China’s import and export trade, and both will have a more distinctive inhibitive effect on China’s import trade. (3) The response of China’s foreign trade to fluctuations in import and export trade of trading partner countries is more prominent than the response to fluctuations in oil prices. Therefore, it is concluded that the increase in international oil prices will promote China’s import to a certain extent and hinder China’s export. At the same time, the import and export trade between the United States and Japan has a significant impact on China’s foreign trade, and the impact of the United States and Japan’s import and export shocks on China’s import trade is more evident. However,compared with the impact of the United States and Japan’s foreign trade, international oil prices have a smaller impact on China’s international trade.
Last Update: 2020-07-02