Factors influencing the credit spread of quasimunicipal bond——Based on local government administrative level(PDF)
《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]
- Issue:
- 2020年01期
- Page:
- 70-82
- Research Field:
- 区域经济
- Publishing date:
Info
- Title:
- Factors influencing the credit spread of quasimunicipal bond——Based on local government administrative level
- Author(s):
- GAO Jie1; MA Jun2; LI Xingfeng1
- 1.School of Banking and Finance,University of International Business and Economics，Beijing 100029, China；2.School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872,China
- Keywords:
- city investment bond; local government; administrative level; multiple linear regression model; credit spread; debt risk
- PACS:
- F812.5
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In order to prevent the local government debt risk, and reduce the occurrence of city investment bond credit defaults, this paper adopts the multiple linear regression model, selects the 7year corporate bonds in newly issued city investment bond from 2014 to 2016 as samples, takes the relevant indices of individual factors such as government finance and bonds as independent variables, and macrofactors as control variables, and analyzes the influencing factors of credit spreads of city investment bond of different administrative levels in China.The study believes that the individual factors of bonds have a significant impact on the credit spreads of county, city and provincial city investment bond; the influence of the macro factors increases with the rise of the administrative level of city investment companies; the local government fiscal factors have the same type of impact on various administrative levels, but because of the differences in the qualifications of city investment companies, the government fiscal factors have a significant impact on the credit spreads of low administrative level. Under different administrative levels, the impact of various factors on credit spreads is slightly different. The credit spreads of city investment bond issuance by city investment companies are negatively related to the rating situation and issuance scale. The absolute value of coefficient decreases with the rise of administrative levels, while the financial factors of companies themselves have no significant impact.The local government should strive to develop the economy in order to lower the financing cost of city investment companies; the investors should utilize multiple indices to estimate the credit spreads of bond issuance before investment; the city investment companies should also pay attention to reasonably design the bond issuance scale, and lower their financing cost to a minimum; the regulatory organs should strengthen the supervision and policy guidance in the macroeconomic aspect on the bond issuance of city investment companies at a low administrative level, in order to facilitate the resolution of the city investment bond issue and promote the reasonable issuance of bonds by city investment bond companies.
Last Update: 2020-03-26