|Table of Contents|

General equilibrium analysis of the effect of RCEP on trade flow and welfare(PDF)

《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

Issue:
2023年03期
Page:
17-34
Research Field:
国际经济与贸易
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
General equilibrium analysis of the effect of RCEP on trade flow and welfare
Author(s):
ZHANG Tianding1;  LI Huisi2
(1. Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Hubei 430072, Wuhan, China; 2. Economics School, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 520038, Zhejiang, China)
Keywords:
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP);  deep trade agreement;  Structural Gravity Model;  general equilibrium analysis;  total export;  trade in intermediate goods
PACS:
F744
DOI:
-
Abstract:
The effect of regional trade agreements on international trade and welfare between member countries and non-member countries has always been the focus of extensive attention in the field of international trade. In order to study the economic effects of RCEP's entry into force, this paper uses the panel data of 40 countries or regions and domestic total trade flow and sub-sector trade flow to match with the data of regional trade agreements, and then constructs the basic data set of the research. Based on the analytical framework of the Structural Gravity Model, a counterfactual simulation analysis of the economic effects of RCEP's entry into force is carried out from the perspectives of extensive and intensive marginals, and the impact of RCEP's entry into force on the international trade and GDP changes of various countries is quantified. According to the study, under the two counterfactual simulation analysis methods, the trade creation effect of RCEP on the total export and sub-sector export of member economies is outstanding; the trade diversion effect is not obvious, and there is still a reverse trade diversion effect in the research sample; the impact of RCEP's entry into force on the welfare levels of member economies is controllable, and no prominent problems such as serious net welfare losses that affect the stability of RCEP have been found. RCEP will promote the growth of China's total export, agriculture, manufacturing, service industry and intermediate product export, and accelerate the speed of trade integration between China and countries or regions in the Asia-Pacific region. Relevant authorities need to speed up the improvement of relevant domestic regulations and policies based on agreements, and select key areas and industries to formulate implementation plans and provide institutional guarantees for the implementation of the agreements; relevant industry associations need to speed up the benchmarking of international advanced industrial levels, and make relevant preparations for raising standards and improving rules.

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Last Update: 2023-09-01