How to correctly evaluate the influence of Sino-US trade friction(PDF)
《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]
- Issue:
- 2020年01期
- Page:
- 1-8
- Research Field:
- 国际经济与贸易
- Publishing date:
Info
- Title:
- How to correctly evaluate the influence of Sino-US trade friction
- Author(s):
- HUANG Youguang
- School of Economics，Fudan University，Shanghai 200433，China
- Keywords:
- trade friction; Sino-US relations; Trump; Plaza Accord; Thucydides trap; industrial transfer; military clout
- PACS:
- F752.7
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Sino-US trade friction has brought shocks to the stable development of international economy, and urgently requires the academia to analyze and make a preestimation on all levels. This paper conducts research on the five aspects of the essence of the origin of SinoUS trade friction, the ruling policies of the incumbent President Trump of the US, China’s coping capabilities, experience drawn from the USJapan trade friction, and whether China and the US can avoid the Thucydides trap, by way of data analysis and comparative argumentation, based on the experience and lessons in international economic development in historic eras. Results show that the "America First" and the mercantilism advocated by Trump will weaken the status of US dollars as the international currency, while China will sustain a lesser impact in the mid to long term by the trade friction due to its advantages in products and factors transfer. This is why the US will bear more losses in the SinoUS trade friction. Japan met an economic stagnation after the Plaza Accord, mostly due to the decrease and ageing in its own population, not because of the USJapan trade friction. There is certain gap in the military clout of China and the US, and China will not challenge the US, so they can avoid the Thucydides trap. In the context of the correct domestic and foreign policies, China is able to lower the impact of the SinoUS trade friction to a minimum and achieve sustained peaceful development.
Last Update: 2020-03-26