|Table of Contents|

Relationship between highway transportation and economic development in China(PDF)

《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

Issue:
2007年02期
Page:
8-13
Research Field:
专家论坛
Publishing date:
2007-06-20

Info

Title:
Relationship between highway transportation and economic development in China
Author(s):
XU Hai-cheng;  LI Jian;  YANG Yan
School of Economics and Management, Chang'an University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China
Keywords:
traffic and transportation engineering;  planning and managing of transportation;  highway transportation;  economic development;  Co-integration theory;  Granger causality;  economic scale;  traffic planning
PACS:
F54
DOI:
-
Abstract:
Based on the time series data, the paper studies the relationship between the highway transportation and the economic development through Co-integration theory and Granger causality test method. Put into different periods, it indicates that there was no such relationship from 1978 to 1991 while from 1992 to 2005 there was harmonious and two-way causality relationship. By establishing the Co-integration regression equation to predict the future of highway transportation in terms of quantity and through comparing it with the development plan of the Ministry of Communications for the“ Eleventh Five-year” plan, the paper proposes that: 1)the highway development plan for the“ Eleventh Five-year” plan is close to the economic development of China, but it is unable to satisfy the demand of the economic development;2)the method of dividing the course of highway development into two periods reveals the internal logic and quantitative relation in different stages. The conclusion is that there should be a long-term balance between highway transportation and economic development with the strategy of the former moderately exceeding the latter, and in China the exceeding period should be 2-3 years.

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Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2007-06-20