|Table of Contents|

Empirical analysis on the factors affecting China’s exports ofmechanical and electrical products to U.S.(PDF)

《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

Issue:
2021年02期
Page:
36-47
Research Field:
国际经济与贸易
Publishing date:
2021-03-10

Info

Title:
Empirical analysis on the factors affecting China’s exports ofmechanical and electrical products to U.S.
Author(s):
FENG Xiaoling;  ZHAO Pengpeng
School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China
Keywords:
Sino-US trade;  mechanical and electrical product;  export;  technical barrier;  policy uncertainty;  exchange rate;  stylized fact;  time series decomposition;  VAR model
PACS:
F752.62
DOI:
-
Abstract:
Based on the monthly data from 2015 to 2019, this paper analyzes the stylized facts of China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products to U.S. before and after Donald J. Trump became president, in order to study the changes and the factors affecting China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products to U.S. before and after the Sino-US trade conflicts. Based on the VAR model and Granger causality test, impulse response function and series decomposition, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on those factors. It concludes that the increase of technical barriers in U.S. has an obvious hindering effect on China’s export of mechanical and electrical products to U.S.; and the increase of domestic demand in U.S. will promote the import of mechanical and electrical products from China in the short term; the devaluation of RMB may have a "J curve effect" on the export of mechanical and electrical products; while the rise in the price of mechanical and electrical products has in turn promoted the export of mechanical and electrical products to U.S.; the economic prosperity of U.S. and its economic policy uncertainty have little influence on China’s export of mechanical and electrical products to U.S.. Therefore, paying attention to the diversification of the export market of mechanical and electrical products, reducing the impact of technical barriers, using exchange rate policy rationally and stabilizing Sino-US economic and trade relations will contribute to China’s future exports of mechanical and electrical products to U.S..

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Last Update: 2021-03-10