Longterm predication of tourism in Hainan province(PDF)
《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]
- Issue:
- 2018年02期
- Page:
- 42-50
- Research Field:
- 经济管理
- Publishing date:
Info
- Title:
- Longterm predication of tourism in Hainan province
- Author(s):
- SHI Jing; XIN Lei
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
- Keywords:
- tourism area life cycle; logistical model; tourism forecast; Hainan province
- PACS:
- F592
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- The aim of this study is to quantify the evolution of tourism in Hainan province and forecast longterm visitor numbers using the experiences drawn from international island resorts. After analysing tourism development in both Hawaii and Taiwan province, the tourism industry in Hainan province was carefully compared with international island resorts. We found that the development environment in Hainan province was more similar to that in Hawaii. The tourism area life cycle theory describes the evolution of a tourist destination, and a logistical model is commonly used to fit the life cycle curve. The development of Hawaii, which we already included at the end of the life cycle theory, is considered to be an evolutionary model and described as a logistical model. To describe its longterm prediction, by comparing the living standards of residents between China and the US, we confirmed the development stage of Hainan province and established its logistical model. We identified that the tourism in Hainan province is at an inflection point between the development stage and consolidation stage of the life cycle theory in 2018, which means the growth rate would slow down in the future. Moreover, the number of tourists in Hainan province is expected to be 120 million at the end of the life cycle, which is twice compared to the number right now. Thus, because of the prospect of tourism development in Hainan province, we put forward a longterm plan, balancing area differences and protecting the environment to prevent the tourism industry of Hainan province from slowing down.
Last Update: 2018-05-31