Abstract

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Title:: Causality relationship between high speed railway and economic growth

Author(s):: LI Hongchang; Linda Tjia; HU Shunxiang; LIU Lihong; 1.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044,China； 2.Department of Asian and International Studies, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China

Keywords:: high speed railway; economic growth; urbanization ratio; population density; immediate effect

Abstract:: [GK2!2]Abstract: 〖WTBZ〗Regarding the influence of Chinas high speed railway supply on economic growth and industrial structure and how the industrial structure, urbanization ratio and population density determine high speed railway supply, this paper analyzed the immediate effect, fast effect and slow effect mechanisms between high speed railway and economic growth. From the perspective of the impact of high speed railway on economic growth, China’s provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014 shows that during the last ten years, the immediate effect and fats effect of high speed railway deteriorate gradually, and slow effect dominates for high speed railways high time value and transport expenditure, which leads to the fact that high speed railway renders no significant influence on China as a whole or central China while it has a significant positive impact on east China and significant negative impact on west China. The implication is that high speed railway is not the reason of economic growth; From the perspective of the impact of economy on high speed railway, Logit model study on the triggering mechanism shows that the immediate effect, slow effect and fast effect of high speed railway are derived demand of the original demand of national economy, tertiary industry, urbanization ratio and population density significantly determine the supply of high speed railway.