|Table of Contents|

Forecast for transportation demand from analysis of transportation demand & supply quality(PDF)

《长安大学学报（社科版）》[ISSN:1671-6248/CN:61-1391/C]

Issue:
2007年04期
Page:
16-19
Research Field:
交通运输经济与管理
Publishing date:
2007-12-20

Info

Title:
Forecast for transportation demand from analysis of transportation demand & supply quality
Author(s):
WU Qun-qi1;  YANG Xia1;  WANG Zhong2
1. School of Economics and Management, Changan University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Communications, Beijing 100029, China
Keywords:
planning and management of transportation;  transportation economy;  transportation demand;  transportation supply;  theory of transportation demand forecast
PACS:
F540
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In order to establish a scientific transportation forecasting system and accurately get to know the forecasting theory in transportation demands, it is necessary to re-discuss the implications in the transportation demands and supplies. This paper, through demand functions and demand-supply balance theory, carries out a sensitive analysis on the relationship between transportation demands and price variations, and the relationship between transportation quality and demand variations. The authors find that the transportation demand is characterized by its gradation while the transportation supply is featured by heterogeneity, and that the recorded transportation volume and the future demands are restricted by supply-demand conditions, which should not be taken as equivalent. The results show that if the supply can meet the needs of demands, the existing forecating method can still be used. If not, the demand can be futher divided into price sensitive mode and quality sensitive mode. The paper, at last, by means of elastic analysis theory, observes the variation law of the relationship between supply and demand and forcasts the future increases.

References:

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Memo

Memo:
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Last Update: 2007-12-20